been poking around w/ Linux for nearly 10 yrs, now
back then, there was only RedHat and SuSE, both on a CD with a little manual, all for 20 or 30 bucks.
downloading even a CD over dial up wasn't very promising, there was no ~buntu or the like, there wasn't even Gnome, the 1st attempt of (linux) open source to welcome LostDOS users.
long time RedHat fan, i switched to SuSE a couple years ago because RedHat didn't bother supporting my HW properly (dual CPU, ECC memory, built-in RAID controller...); not your average config, admittedly, but whereas RedHad didn't even boot the install media (a DVD, now), the openSUSE DVD always started up, installed what i asked for (KDE) and left me with a smoothly running system; since beginning of the year as my only OS, not even bothering w/ v!$t0 anymore :D
if you know what a hard disk is, have been looking in Disk Management to see how M$ wastes your disk space, you'll be perfectly fine with openSUSE, 10.3, proven & stable, or 11.0, still a little edgy (like, don't bother w/ KDE 4 or FF 3)
long term support?
well, Novell, who bought SuSE a couple years ago, seems to be settle as one of the hi-tech companies, profitable and all AND very committed to the open source side of openSUSE, as opposed to Red Had who couldn't care less about FC.
~buntu? not profitable (by design), thus, just like BeOS and so many other "free" OSes, you never know how long they'll be around...